The escalating global population has amplified wastewater generation, contaminating water bodies and disrupting marine ecosystems. In water-scarce regions, desalination meets freshwater needs, but membrane fouling poses a major challenge. This study introduces a novel probabilistic approach to analyse fouling mechanisms, employing transmembrane pressure manipulation to manage permeate flux. Observations reveal a decline in flux over time due to cake layer accumulation, emphasizing the impact of pressure on flux and membrane integrity. With a high probability of complete fouling, membranes struggle to maintain previous flow rates, reducing desalination plant productivity. This innovative approach highlights the pivotal role of pressure in enhancing water production and offers insights into fouling mechanisms for effective desalination management.